US Open 2026 Dark Horses: Who Can Break the Sinner–Alcaraz Script?

Ben Shelton — the explosive New York route

Shelton's left-handed serve can remove pressure from entire service games, and his 2023 semi-final proved that the stadium does not intimidate him. When the first serve lands and his forehand follows, he can force higher-ranked players to play repeated tiebreak-pressure points.

His path becomes fragile when return games offer too few openings or emotional acceleration turns into rushed decisions. Watch his second-serve return position and whether he can win ordinary baseline exchanges before assuming the crowd will carry him.

Taylor Fritz — the repeatable American route

Fritz reached the 2024 US Open final with a more controlled formula: reliable first-strike tennis, a flat backhand and hard-court positioning that rarely needs reinvention. He is less dependent on one spectacular wave than Shelton and may be better equipped to navigate an awkward first week.

The decisive question is whether that stability can become dominance against the top return-and-movement tier. To win the title, he may need to beat two of Sinner, Alcaraz, Zverev or Djokovic in the same week rather than merely stay close.

The upset profile matters more than the label

Other names will emerge from Canada, Cincinnati and qualifying. Instead of chasing novelty, look for four signals: free points on serve, a return position that punishes second serves, movement that survives the hard-court change of direction, and recent evidence of winning consecutive close matches.

A dangerous player placed in an injured or tired favourite's section can become more relevant than a higher-ranked name with a poor route. That is why this page will add and remove candidates after the draw.

• Serve pressure: Can the player shorten games in heat and humidity?
• Return threat: Can they create chances without waiting for errors?
• Five-set recovery: Is there evidence beyond one upset?
• Draw leverage: Does the route avoid repeated physical wars?
• New York temperament: Can noise become energy rather than distraction?

Three storylines that could open the draw

First, Alcaraz may return without normal match preparation, making his section less predictable. Second, Sinner's deep Wimbledon run and hard-court schedule could create a workload question. Third, the Americans may receive multiple favourable seeds, allowing crowd-backed players to build momentum before meeting a top favourite.

None of those possibilities guarantees an upset. They explain where to look. Our first post-draw update will identify the sections where style and timing create more opportunity than ranking alone suggests.